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January 2011 - Egypt is now convulsing, so what are the prospects for change, or instability,
in the post-Mubarak era? Old
Egypt-hand Charles Richards gave an overview of aspects of political stability
and the prospects for economic
growth, and considered what may change in the post-Mubarak era and what will
not.
February 2011 - Three experts gave their views on the past, present and future of two Sudans
following the January referendum on South Sudan's secession. This seminar
explained
how Sudan came to reach this point, what the current situation is and what is
likely to happen to both countries in the future. It also reviewed the main
issues
facing the Nile Basin and whether an independent South Sudan could be a
danger to Egypt's water security.
March 2011 - Emily Morris, the UK's foremost expert on the Cuban economy, looked at
whether Cuba may be open for business in 2011 following signals recently from
both the
US and Cuba that there is a gradual thaw in bilateral relations. There was also
a short presentation from Rupert Gather of Wellstone Partners, who asked: 'Should we now be taking Cuba seriously?'
April 2011 - MENA region: Dr Noel Brehony CMG and Dr Charles Gurdon emphasised how essential
it is for investors to understand what has caused the dissent in each state,
how
governments and opposition forces are reacting and how this is likely to play
out over the next few months in their Arab Spring seminar on the developments
in
the region and potential outcomes.
May 2011 - Georges Landau, president of Menas do Brasil explained in detail Brazil's political-institutional framework, its growing role in the world today and what the pre-salt exploitation will mean for the country in a presentation
entitled: "Brazil: Land of infinite opportunities (and some risks)".
June 2011 - Politics and energy are very closely entwined in the Caspian region. Alex
Jackson looked at the impact of the Turkish elections on Ankara's Caspian
policy
and the growing involvement of China, leading to greater competition with
Russia
in a presentation entitled: "The Caspian region: a reincarnation of the
Great Game?"
July 2011 - Central Africa was once regarded as the most unstable region of an unstable
continent. Sub-Saharan expert Chris Melville outlined its prospects for peace
and
economic growth in the near future. This was followed by a brief presentation
by
Roderick Smith, CEO of Cominco Resources.
August 2011 - Catherine McKinley's prognosis of Vietnam's short-term wobbles and long-term
strengths looked at the challenges faced by a government newly raised to power
earlier this year. She analysed the risks and benefits of investing in this
Southeast Asian nation and the possibility of a home-grown Jasmine Revolution.
September 2011 - "The Kleptocracies of Kazakhstan & Kyrgyzstan" was the title of
Tamara Makarenko of West Sands LLP's presentation. Considering case studies in
banking, energy and telecommunications, she looked at the relationship between
domestic politics (governance), transparency in the market (corporate
governance)
and their impact on foreign investors in the two countries.
October 2011 - Six months on, in a presentation entitled "Arab Spring for some;
possible winter for others", Noel Brehony and Charles Gurdon revisted the MENA region to look at which
countries may be next in the rebellion domino effect. They examined whether the
secular liberals, who were in the vanguard of the revolutions, may win
democratic
elections or be swept away by socially conservative and possibly economically
nationalist Islamic parties.
December 2011 - Publisher and Editor in Chief of Africa Confidential, Patrick Smith looked
beyond the Mahgreb to what the rising power of pro-democracy politics means for
the rest of Africa. He showed how a little more prosperity is proving to be a
dangerous thing for Africa's ruling class as elections loom in several
countries.
Forthcoming Breakfast Briefings will be listed early in 2012
Older Breakfast Briefings can be found in the eLibrary.
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