01.11.11 Caspian Focus Interim PM wins Kyrgyzstan election

Kyrgyzstan's interim premier Almazbek Atambayev has won a tense presidential election with 63 per cent of the vote, removing the need for a second round of voting and raising prospects for reconciliation in the divided country.

International monitors criticised fraud and ballot-stuffing in the poll on 31st October, but concluded that it was generally free and fair. Atambayev's opponents, however, have denounced what they allege is massive manipulation and have declared that they will protest the result. Leading opposition candidate Kamchibek Tashiyev, a pugnacious ex-boxer and Emergencies Minister from the nationalist Ata-Jurt party, has warned that “disorders are inevitable” if the vote is not annulled.

Small numbers of opposition supporters have already taken to the streets in Tashiyev's powerbase in southern Kyrgyzstan. Although it seems unlikely that demonstrations will reach critical mass, an ongoing political stand-off would deepen divisions between the country's north and the south.

Regional tensions have come out into the open since the ousting of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in April 2010, and the savage interethnic violence between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan two months later. That violence polarised the two communities, hardening ethnic nationalism and fostering a sense that the government in Bishkek was distant and unresponsive.

In this fractious environment, powerbrokers like Tashiyev became increasingly powerful. Regular riots targeted government offices in the south, weakening the power of the interim government and allowing local politicians to effectively run southern cities.

Atambayev's challenge now is to heal the country's regional and ethnic divisions and reduce the role of regional powerbrokers. It has been widely speculated that he will seek to bring Tashiyev, and possibly other opposition figures, into the new government. This could be a successful strategy, but not if Atambayev essentially allows local strongmen to retain their post in exchange for maintaining basic stability.

Atambayev may be well-placed to move Kyrgyzstan forward, despite the country's many challenges. A moderate and canny politician who served as prime minister under Bakiyev, he is able to appeal to Kyrgyz nationalists but also the Uzbek minority.

He has already promised not to renew the lease on the controversial US airbase at Manas when it expires in 2014. The airbase, which is used to supply US forces in Afghanistan, has been a bone of contention between Washington and Bishkek for some time. In refusing to renew the lease Atambayev is indicating his commitment to a positive relationship with Russia, which is critical for Kyrgyzstan's political and economic prospects.

Sources: BBC, Reuters, Eurasianet

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